2011 Player Projections

Over at Baseball Canadiana my friend @travisgarrey
likes to do his predictions of what each team will do over the course of the
season. Does a pretty damn good job and makes for a good read. I look forward
to his daily predictions, and can’t wait till the end of the year to see how
right he was. That being said, I always do my own predictions every year. Not
for every team, but for each player with the Jays. I don’t look at advanced
stats, and I don’t have any formulae for how I come up with them. I merely look
at their previous stats, and make some stuff up. Gut feeling, if you will. Last
year, I think I was pretty close, as I predicted a comeback season for Wells,
and downfall for both Hill and Lind. However, I don’t think anyone could have
predicted Bautista’s season. Here is how my 2010 predictions played out, with
actual numbers in parentheses:

Player

2010 Prediction

2010 Actual

 

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB/SBA

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB/SBA

Lewis

.256

7

33

74

16/21

.262

8

36

70

17/23

Hill

.255

25

87

81

5/8

.205

26

68

70

2/4

Lind

.281

22

91

71

½

.237

23

72

57

0/0

Wells

.284

30

103

86

9/12

.273

31

88

79

6/10

Overbay

.271

19

74

64

2/3

.243

20

67

75

1/1

Encarnacion

.215

21

68

56

1/3

.244

21

51

47

1/1

Snider

.265

21

70

65

5/9

.255

14

32

36

6/9

Gonzalez

.245

12

51

74

3/5

.250

23

88

74

1/3

Buck

.252

15

61

53

0/0

.281

20

66

53

0/0

Bautista

.242

13

41

35

2/4

.260

54

124

109

9/11

McDonald

.215

1

14

27

3/5

.250

6

23

27

2/3

Molina

.226

2

18

13

0/0

.246

6

12

13

1/1

Wise

.260

2

15

25

6/8

.250

3

14

20

4/4

 

Player

2010 Prediction

2010 Actual

 

 

W

L

ERA

SV

K

BB

IP

W

L

ERA

SV

K

BB

IP

Marcum

12

8

3.91

0

125

51

175

13

8

3.64

0

165

43

195

Romero

14

6

3.65

0

168

71

181

14

9

3.73

0

174

82

210

Morrow

12

9

4.25

0

177

82

164

10

7

4.49

0

178

66

146

Rzepczynski

9

11

4.78

0

124

71

138

4

4

4.95

0

57

30

63

Cecil

8

14

4.29

0

105

49

145

15

7

4.22

0

117

54

172

Tallet

2

5

4.98

0

52

36

75

2

6

6.40

0

53

38

77

Frasor

3

7

3.58

6

59

29

65

3

4

3.68

4

65

27

63

Roenicke

1

4

4.15

2

43

31

53

1

0

5.68

0

18

13

19

Camp

4

2

3.25

1

45

21

55

4

3

2.99

2

46

18

72

Janssen

4

3

3.81

1

54

25

61

5

2

3.67

0

63

21

68

Downs

5

5

3.14

5

64

18

72

5

5

2.64

0

48

14

61

Gregg

2

7

3.98

31

61

32

64

2

6

3.51

37

58

30

59

 

Looking back, I made some decent choices. Most people picked
Dana Eveland to win the 5th spot, and they were right, but it didn’t
mean it was a good choice, as he really sucked. I also had Roenicke and
Rzepczynski to be with the team the whole year, but inconsistencies and
injuries, respectively, held the two down in the minor leagues. I won’t dwell
on those projections and I will get right to 2011. Here goes:

Player

2011 Prediction

 

AVG

HR

RBI

R

SB/SBA

Davis

.286

6

48

95

58/69

Escobar

.294

12

67

83

7/11

Bautista

.254

32

92

88

12/15

Lind

.282

29

89

71

0/0

Hill

.269

28

79

72

4/6

Snider

.288

25

76

79

10/13

Encarnacion

.241

26

70

62

3/6

Rivera

.271

19

68

64

3/5

Arencibia

.261

16

58

53

½

Patterson

.252

6

28

36

17/20

McDonald

.231

5

21

30

3/5

Molina

.238

7

25

19

0/0

McCoy

.254

5

31

25

3/4

 

Player

2011 Prediction

 

W

L

ERA

SV

K

BB

IP

Romero

15

8

3.53

0

183

68

214

Morrow

14

10

3.92

0

215

69

193

Cecil

14

8

4.01

0

129

55

185

Drabek

11

9

4.22

0

145

53

168

Rzepczynski

11

10

4.35

0

151

66

172

Dotel

3

7

4.81

0

52

36

62

Frasor

3

5

3.59

3

62

26

61

Rauch

3

3

3.98

4

43

16

55

Camp

5

3

2.85

1

51

19

67

Janssen

3

5

3.95

0

59

26

66

Purcey

3

2

3.74

2

62

29

65

Francisco

2

5

3.14

34

81

32

66

 

With that projection, they get an 87-75 record. This is all
gut feeling, and I didn’t really do any number crunching. Just kinda made my
educated decisions based on what I thought of the player. Now I could use
statistical formulae or copy Bill James and other projections, but I just went
merely on how I felt. It is pretty fun to do, and it only took me a minute to
come up with the numbers. I know that injuries will happen and other people
will be called up, but I just took into account the guys they have. As for
McCoy, I really don’t know who the 4th bench player will be, but
seeing as McCoy can play anywhere but pitcher and catcher, I figured to give
him a shot. The Jays could also elect to go with an eight man bullpen but I have
never liked that idea.

The 2011 version of the Toronto Blue Jays looks to be more
exciting. More stolen bases, more guys taking an extra base and being
aggressive on the basepaths, but they still look like a team that will be
mashing the ball out of the park at a prolific rate. My projection has them at
216 homeruns, which last year would have been first in the MLB. Their OBP will
rise slightly, which makes them a much less one-dimensional team when it comes
to scoring runs.

Their pitching reflects the philosophy of GM Alex
Anthopolous, in that they have some power arms who can not only strike you out,
but induce a ton of ground balls. Their revamped bullpen will produce some
quality numbers, and probably net a few draft picks if the current structure of
the CBA stays in place regarding free agency.

I am not going to get into much detail regarding the other
teams in the league, but I project them to have a 3rd place finish
in the AL East, and finish just a few games out of the wild card race.

About blandy12

Baseball has been my love since I was three years old. Now I finally have the courage to write about this passion. Share your comments please.
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7 Responses to 2011 Player Projections

  1. Nice work. You were really close last season, that’s impressive.

    I’m not sure if the Jays will do much basestealing outside of Davis though. Farrell and Anthopoulos seem to take the “moneyball” approach which means calculated risks to ensure at least a 70% SB%, which means no running for the sake of running.

    I really like the season you’ve projected for Escobar…I think he’s going to be very good this year too.

  2. blandy12 says:

    Thanks, much appreciated. As far as basestealing, I really only have 4 guys who will do any damage, and Snider barely squeaks in at 10 stolen bases. Patterson as the 4th OF means he will be a late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner, so I see him getting a lot of opportunities to steal bags.
    I really hope Escobar can up his walk rate and really do some damage as a #2 hitter. This is the most excited I have been going into a year, it will be great fun.

  3. Ian says:

    Yeah, props on your predictions from last year. Those are all pretty damn close to actual. Knowing how close you were last year, I better take these stats and start laying down some bets on ProLine or something.

  4. jonnyzee says:

    Wow, nice work! Your 2011 projections seem pretty reasonable to me…..unfortunately! Most crazed Jays fans like you and me would shoot too high but again, most seem pretty realistic. I don’t see Davis getting that many SBs but here’s hoping! But every season always has at least one guy who surprises you in a good way (Bautista) and in a bad way (Hill, Lind). AA has me thinking/hoping the good one this year will be Encarnacion. At the State of the Franchise evening he said they feel that being injury-free, with a full 500 ABs, and not having to worry about playing 3rd they are expecting a Bautista-type breakout season. Again, here’s hoping, but it makes you wonder why then they let him go to Oakland for nothing!

    • blandy12 says:

      They let him go because of the potential salary he could have made via arbitration. By non tendering him, and then picking him up later, they were able to get him at a much discounted rate. I have a feeling that Davis is just gonna run all day. Maybe I was shooting a little high, but I think he will improve his OBP and take a lot of bases.
      Hill and Lind bounce back, but not quite to their 2009 numbers. I believe in Lind as a hitter more than I do Hill.

  5. George says:

    I think overall, you tended to be a bit over optimistic with your 2010 predictions, and given the same tendency this year, I would say 82 games. If they are going to win more games, they will have to improve in areas that that your stats don’t cover: hitting with RISP, scoring against good pitching, and playing better on the road and in inter-league. I don’t think Davis will steal even 50 this year, because despite minor changes, this team will live and die by it’s power, and with the mashers coming up behind him, it makes sense for him to run just enough to keep opposing pitchers distracted by the possibility that he will run.

  6. Pingback: 2011 Toronto Blue Jays: Ninja-like GM gives Jays’ fans high expectations for 2011, but are they warranted? | Baseball Canadiana

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